It’s a long way to 2110 – several generations. But our realistic core simulation shows that long-term demographic trends can produce surprisingly stable patterns. In this model, the year 2110 becomes the point where two lines intersect: the proportion of Christians and the proportion of Muslims.
This result is neither spectacular nor alarming – it is a logical consequence of mathematically smoothed trends.
The situation today: Germany in transition
Germany is constantly changing. Three developments stand out:
- Churches are losing members; many people are becoming non-denominational.
- The Muslim population is growing moderately and steadily.
- Secularization is having a stronger and more lasting effect than migration.
Together, these trends create a slow but consistent shift.
How the realistic model works
The core model works with:
- empirically based drifts for Christians and Muslims
- realistic assumptions about migration and fertility
- a mathematically stable structure without extremes
It is deliberately kept unsensational and merely reflects continued, plausible movement patterns.
A time-lapse through eight decades
The 2030s – Consolidation
Church departures remain high. Migration has a moderately stabilizing effect.
The 2050s – The middle of the century
Christian shares continue to decline. Muslims move into the lower double-digit percentage range.
The 2080s – The lines converge
Over decades, the trend lines approach each other slowly but steadily.
Why the model results in 2110
The value 2110 does not result from a political statement or prophecy, but as a calculated intersection.
It arises from:
- continuous secularization of the Christian population
- moderate but stable growth of the Muslim population
- smooth trend continuation instead of jumps
The intersection is therefore an internal property of the model, not a future scenario.
What 2110 means – and what it does not
It means:
- If today’s trends remain stable, the calculated intersection is around 2110.
It does not mean:
- that 2110 is a social turning point,
- that Christians or Muslims will disappear,
- that conflicts will arise.
Demographic intersections are mathematical events, not social ones.
Conclusion
2110 is a model value that shows how powerful long-term trends can be – especially secularization.
It reminds us how slow and at the same time powerful social changes are.
The exploratory article then shows how these values can shift under extreme assumptions.