In the exploratory model, the year 2085 appears as a possible intersection point between the proportion of Christians and Muslims. But in contrast to the realistic core layer, this is expressly a thought experiment.
It shows how long-term trends can change when several extraordinary assumptions occur simultaneously.
Why we need an exploratory model
Exploratory scenarios are not for prediction, but for stress-testing assumptions.
They answer the question:
“What happens when several extremes act at the same time?”
They make models more transparent and reveal boundaries.
How extreme parameters work
The exploratory layer allows for significantly broader parameters:
- exceptionally high migration,
- sharply accelerated secularization,
- changed fertility patterns,
- shifted religious dynamics.
Only certain combinations of such extremes cause the trend lines to converge as early as 2085.
How the model produces 2085
The value arises when:
- the decline of the Christian population proceeds more rapidly,
- the Muslim population grows more strongly,
- and the remaining population shifts dynamically.
The result is a model value under extreme conditions, not a realistic scenario.
A narrative extreme path
Imagine:
- In the 2040s, secularization accelerates drastically.
- Global crises noticeably increase migration.
- Religious attachment patterns change in younger generations.
Only under such conditions would an intersection around 2085 be mathematically possible.
What 2085 does not mean
- It is not a forecast.
- It is not likely.
- It is not a statement about future societal conflicts.
It merely shows: models are sensitive. Small changes today can trigger major changes in tomorrow’s model.
Conclusion
2085 is a hypothetical value that serves the purpose of making the limits of possible developments visible.
Such scenarios help to understand the sensitivity of demographic models—not to predict the future, but to be able to think about it better.